None of us are unaware that the modern world we live in is a global village. From sharing a common internet space we are also a part of geopolitics. According to Lord Robertson, “Globalization will make our societies more creative and prosperous, but also more vulnerable”. Thus any event that takes place in one corner of the world is bound to have a ripple effect in your country too.
Russia launched an armed attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The war has led to serious consequences to both the parties and the entire globe as well. Various sanctions and charges have been imposed on Russia, with no luck. India so far has been able to maintain a diplomatic and balanced stand on the situation. We can side with neither block as our interest lies with both of them. Additionally, our ancient foreign policy of NAM also guided us to mediate the situation without taking a firm stand for anyone.
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has led to many controversies, international diplomacies, radical changes and economic disruptions. However, what we have read or heard is mainly the effects of war globally. There are both positive and negative effects of this war on India. This article will discuss these impacts in detail.
Challenges for India
Edible and crude oil supply disturbances- India is one of the biggest importers of edible oils such as sunflower oil. Most of it is sourced from Russia and Ukraine. Due to this war situation and India’s diplomatic stand, we might see a surge in the prices as supply reduces.
Apart from the edible oils, the prices of crude oil have also spiked. The prices are as high as 100$ per barrel. It directly means an energy crisis, increased prices of petroleum and related products. Currently, India is mining its coal reserves 24*7 to meet the energy demands and still there is a shortage. IOC (Indian Oil Corporation) has said that it won’t be accepting any cargoes of Russian crude oil keeping in view the sanctions imposed on it amidst the war.
Price surge of other important items- No doubt the impact on India’s oil imports is huge. However, there are several other items that have been impacted due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia holds a huge reserve of precious metals like steel, nickel, platinum, gold etc. Sanctions on trade with Russia have led to a worldwide shortage of these metals. India needs steel and nickel as a raw material for various purposes. We had still not recovered from the shortage caused by the pandemic and now this situation will only worsen the case.
Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine are among the largest exporters of wheat and corn. Severe damage has been caused to their fields and machinery which could take years to restore. With their travel routes distrupted, the supply of these grains is also likely to get affected. The prices will rise as the demand remains constant and the supply is limited. If this scenario continues for long, it can also lead to inflation and serious economic problems for India.
Import of defence supplies- India spends a huge sum of its annual budget on military expenditures. Russia is the major exporter of all our defence supply needs. With trade on halt, our purchase of defense equipment will suffer. We can also expect a surge in the prices of these items as Russia tries to recover its loss from the war. Plus, Russia is employing its upgraded arms and ammunition against Ukraine and other countries are severed from its supply. Therefore, our defence services will see a decrease in new and modern weaponry.
Disruptions in the economy- With the entire global supply chain being distributed, the Indian economy too has had its setbacks. There are speculations that the Indian economy might see a recession due to inflation. Our finance minister, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman has also shown concerns and taken necessary steps to escape the debt trap. RBI (Reserve Bank of India) too has tried to regulate the economy through various monetary tools. There are still mixed views whether the Indian economy will suffer or not due the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Indirect impacts- As the country’s economy suffers and prices of various items are soaring heights. The poor strata of India will have to suffer even to meet their basic need of food. As people struggle to arrange food for themselves and their families, they are bound to neglect their health and the education of their children. This can further deteriorate the inequality and poverty index of India.
Positive effects for India
Opportunity to grow- With various countries cutting their trade ties with Russia, it poses an opportunity for India. If we can skill our labour and produce effectively we can replace Russia and Ukraine’s export especially of wheat and corn. Due to limited supply of essential raw material, the price of Additionally, it also means that India can expand its trade relations with other countries as they minimize their contacts with Russia due to sanctions. As we focus more on producing within the country, our employment rates are also likely to get better.
Diplomacy and United Nations- The Russia- Ukraine war has presented India with an excellent opportunity to make its presence noted in international politics. With the right steps, this could be India’s chance to become a permanent member of the security council. Furthermore, we have always been a preacher of peace and even this time we have made an appeal for the same. Also, time and again, India has presented the world with efficient and able leaders and opinions. Other than that, it also sets a stage for India to perform internationally and get a spotlight it’s always wished for in the United Nations. This tact of diplomacy could take India to another level of development.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has still not ceased. Therefore, we cannot predict what lies ahead of us even now. India’s stand however seems to be justifiable as we cannot afford to cut ties with Russia or be hostile towards Ukraine who has the backing of the USA. The war indeed has impacted the entire world in various ways and India too has felt the shivers of this dynamic. Indian foreign ministers and leaders are under constant pressure and tussle between two parties, trying to do only the best for their country. As mentioned earlier, there are both pros and cons to the story for India. However, it is certain that war anywhere is a threat to people and economies everywhere.Add to favorites